Side note: A lot of people have not realized yet that most stocks are moving with the spy. It’s the reason I track the spy over everything else. If I’m expecting the spy to gain, I’ll look for gainers (e.g. finance is a gainer short term over technology now), or if it’s losing I’ll look for losers (e.g. healthcare is weak now due to re-balancing).
Technology & Healthcare your biggest losers / non gainers for the second day in a row & Industrials takes the #1 spot for gainers by far.
Let’s start with something really interesting I found on Twitter.
Dark pool buying on the decline.
To back that up, option order flow over $1m is also leaning Bearish:
Can I say Finally?
($SPY) I was a little early but saw this coming. Now we’re re-entering our range that we were in:
Top line resistance: 287.79
Bottom line resistance: 272.0
What does that leave you with? A hard to pass resistance, with a lot of downside.
Around 6% easy gain to the downside in this channel. Great risk to reward on the put side. Risking less than 1% for 6%
A beyond important fed meeting today
It can throw TA out the window and make the market skyrocket or plummet (or do nothing of course).
In Short:
What the market wants to hear from the FED is that they are willing to continue QE as long as needed.
What the market doesn’t want to hear is, they are immediately slowing QE (Quantitative easing) and pulling back their involvement.
Something in between those two will leave the market in it’s natural state. That might look like “We’ll continue for a little bit, but if we see the recovery happening we’ll pull back then.”
Big Earnings day today as well
Tesla Facebook, Microsoft & more all reporting today. See here: https://stocktwits.com/discover/earnings-calendar/2020-04-27
Back to $SPY TA
This is an hourly MACD crossover.
It may turn into nothing, but looking at the past history - There has been a decent drop that goes along with it. That should come tomorrow. It’s pretty consistent and I’m a believer in the MACD crossovers.
With all that being said, I’m still bearish. At least until we see some real pullback. Today was not real pullback, it was the start.
PS - This whole oil storage thing is bigger than people are realizing. Don’t know when it will come to ahead but it will cause a problem, a big one.